Q4 2025 recycling data shows a strong finish to the year

The issues with the Report Packaging Data (RPD) portal earlier in the year mean that we do not have any in-year recycling data. However, we can use 2025’s recycling performance as a proxy to see how it compares to the obligation forecast once the carry-in is accounted for. This is detailed below.

Figure 2: A model scenario for compliance year 2026, comparing the confirmed carry-in and 2025’s recycling performance against the forecast obligation.

The modelled data shows a mixed performance. While glass aggregate looks on track to fail compliance again, a healthy remelt surplus should cover the shortfall. Aluminium could fail in-year compliance, but is expected to scrape overall compliance courtesy of the carry-in. Wood looks to be on knife edge, which could put pressure on the markets.

The riskiest material looks to be plastic, which could be upwards 20,000 tonnes short. This also needs to be understood in the context of 2025 being a record year for plastic recycling, so it may be difficult to emulate again this year. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has also increased energy costs and disrupted major shipping routes, further adding to the risk.

All of this is likely to be further compounded by changes in export regulations. Whereas previously an export PRN (PERN) could be issued at the point of export, the rules have now changed to be at the point of receipt by an accredited overseas reprocessor.

This adds a time lag, meaning a shipment of plastic packaging waste sent to Malaysia in November might not arrive until January. As such, the PERN would be issued in 2027 and would therefore not be usable for compliance year 2026.

Put simply, demand is looking higher but supply is likely to be disrupted.

Plastic – high risk 

As discussed above, plastic obligation is expected to be higher this year – potentially by as much as 10%. While we are coming into the year on the back of a record performance, and with strong carry-in data, there is still reason to be cautious.

The markets have been volatile so far, with prices ranging from lows of £265 to highs of £420. It is hoped that the Q1 performance, which should be published on 22 April 2026, will show a continuation of 2025’s momentum and prices will settle. Of course, weak supply data could lead to higher prices.

Plastic is likely to remain the highest risk material this year.

Glass – medium risk 

Despite a recycling target increase, we expect glass obligation to be 1.6% lower this year. This is likely due to the unintentional consequence of EPR: producers moving to lighter materials to reduce waste management costs.

Prices have been fairly static so far this year, maintaining a £100 to £130 price range. We expect glass prices to be at their lowest during the summer months, as major sporting events like the Football World Cup could increase waste arisings.

However, the uncertainty in the Middle East has already driven up energy prices and glass is an energy-intensive industry. Prices could still increase.

Aluminium – medium risk 

Demand for aluminium PRNs is predicted to be 7% higher this year due to recycling target changes and higher placed on market (PoM) figures. While it should achieve compliance with the help of a good carry-in figure, in-year recycling will have to remain consistent with 2025 volumes.

The aluminium PRN market tends to be volatile but has followed a similar pattern in the last three years: prices start relatively low, spike in the middle part of the year before falling back down. This year is no different, beginning at £15 and now trading for £100.

Steel – low risk 

Steel had good recycling performance last year and we came into 2026 with a moderate carry-in. Typically considered a declining packaging material, obligation is expected to be 5% lower despite a recycling target increase.

Following Tata Steel’s exit from the market in 2024 to retrofit an electric arc furnace, around 80% of steel packaging is now exported. Half of this goes beyond the EU, so there could be supply disruptions from the export regulation changes and the situation in the Middle East. Even so, steel looks to be fairly low risk this year.

Following a similar trajectory as aluminium, steel PRNs started the year around £10 but are now trading above £50.

Paper and fibre-based composite – low risk 

Despite an estimated 5% increase in obligation this year, paper had good recycling performance in 2025 and a record carry-out. While the vast majority of our paper is currently exported, the Shotton Mill recycling plant in North Wales is due to begin operating this year, which will hopefully increase domestic production.

Typically a steady market, prices have ranged from £5 to £10 so far this year. We are currently seeing good liquidity and a period of relative stability.

Wood – low risk 

Wood struggled last year, with several fires at reprocessing plants during the summer impacting supply. With an estimated 3% increase in obligation, recycling performance will need to be strong in order to achieve compliance.

The market appears to be reflecting these fundamentals, with prices already doubling from £10 to £20.

Looking ahead 

Ecosurety will continue to communicate changes in the PRN market throughout the year. Members can access the PRN market tracker that provides a daily update on market pricing trends and performance by clicking here.